Political instability in the country as a negative factor in the development of the tourist sphere of the country (for example, the countries of North Africa) p2
It was estimated that in 2011, the growth of foreign tourism in Egypt will be about 9%, after the revolution had to adjust the forecast, reducing to 0.5%. As a result, Egypt will be able to accommodate 12.3 million people again in 2015, but this will still be less than in 2010.
Egyptian hotel downloads dropped to 5% in February 2011, up 30% in March. However, this is below the usual rates for this time of year in Egypt.
A similar situation in the tourism sector is observed in Tunisia, as the first center of revolutionary events in the region. As in the previous case, the revolutionary events in the first place had a negative impact on the state of the hotel industry of the country, due to the low percentage of their loading, and employment levels of the economically active population.
In 2010, about 7 million foreign tourists arrived in Tunisia, bringing the country almost $ 3 billion. During the first three months of 2011, tourist flow to Tunisia decreased by 44%.
The UNWTO is keen to help Tunisia restore its international tourism flow, which is quite relevant to the country, as the tourism industry accounts for almost 7% of the country’s GDP and provides jobs to 450,000 economically active people. The UNWTO should also conduct an analysis of the country’s tourism market and provide recommendations for the development of the tourism industry in the post-revolutionary period.
Against the background of general political instability, existing separatist movements may intensify in countries. All this can be observed in Egypt in the form of conflicts between opponents and supporters of the former president of the country.
This can dramatically change the country’s security situation for tourists. The fact is that according to the MIRT Terrorism Knowledge Base, Egypt and Tunisia accounted for only 0.08% of terrorist acts that took place in the world from 2000 to 2006 (Table 1) .
As we can see, Egypt ranks 50th in the ranking of countries by terrorist acts, and Tunisia ranked 102nd, which testifies to the positive stability of countries in the terrorist aspect.
Against the backdrop of revolutionary developments, tourists from Turkey, Greece, Spain and the UAE are becoming increasingly popular with tourists.
According to the Spanish Tourism Institute (Tuespana), from the start of the Tunisian revolution, 600,000 to 650,000 holiday packages were re-oriented to other destinations in the first weeks of turmoil. For example, in the UK, 400,000 tourists have diverted to the Spanish destination, having previously regularly rested in Tunisia and Egypt.
About 250,000 Germans visited the Canary Islands instead of the tourist countries of North Africa.
In January, 2 million 660 thousand foreign tourists arrived in Spain, which is 4.7% more than the same period last year. The overwhelming number of “additional” tourist trips came just to the Canary Islands: in total there were 870 thousand foreign tourists in the first month of the year.
Weeks of turmoil in Cairo and other cities in Egypt have led to a flurry of booking bookings for alternative beach destinations.
European tourists reoriented Miami and Dubai. The US resort recorded a 32% increase in bookable tours in January (compared to January 2010), and Dubai – a 42% increase over the same period.
Another country benefiting from the redistribution of tourist flows may be Malaysia – at the expense of Saudi Arabia, who have lost their traditional vacation destinations in Libya and Egypt.
Since the end of 2010, tourist flow between Malaysia and Saudi Arabia has increased by 12.6%.
Asia was the world leader in tourist traffic growth in 2010 – an increase of 13%, according to UNWTO, and the number of international tourists reached 204 million.
According to UNWTO, the UAE has emerged victorious from the situation by taking the lion’s share of the tourist flow of the Middle East and North Africa.
While Egypt and Tunisia reflect the trends characteristic of countries that have long paid increased attention to the development of the tourism industry, in the UAE – foreign tourism is relatively young, there is no such spectrum of cultural and historical monuments and diversity of natural and climatic conditions as in the first two. However, like the other Gulf oil countries, the Emirates have enormous financial resources to form the conditions and material base to provide a wide range of tourism services. Continuous growth of tourist activity of the world population will contribute to the development of the tourism sphere of the country (Fig. 2) .